Integrating climate with economy needs to extend beyond government

A reaction to the Wellbeing Budget of May 2019 by Catherine Leining, Policy Fellow at Motu Economic and Public Policy Research

On 30 May 2019, the New Zealand government released its first “Wellbeing Budget.” Under this framework, new funding for climate change mitigation has been integrated with economic development. Adaptation gets only a brief nod. Is this budget allocation adequate to meet the climate change challenge before us? No – but could it ever be?

One key theme is research for a low-emission future. Examples are a National New-Energy Development Centre in Taranaki ($27m), an Advanced Energy Technology Platform ($20m), a Bioresource Processing Alliance and Product Accelerator ($18m), and an Agricultural Climate Change Research Platform ($3.2m). MBIE will advance policy on the future of work and “just transition” issues.

Commentary on introduction of the Zero Carbon Amendment Bill

by Catherine Leining, Policy Fellow at Motu Economic and Public Policy Research

The Government is heeding the stark warning in the IPCC’s Special Report on 1.5oC and putting New Zealand on an ambitious pathway toward net zero emissions of long-lived GHGs and substantial reductions in methane from agriculture and waste by 2050. The Zero Carbon Amendment Bill may finally light the fire under NZ mitigation action. It breaks important new ground in 6 ways.

PCE report on “Farms, forests and fossil fuels”: One lump or two?

by Catherine Leining, Policy Fellow, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research

On 26 March 2019, the Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment (PCE) released a report on “Farms, forests and fossil fuels: The next great landscape transformation?” It looks at the challenges in decarbonising New Zealand’s economy and asks whether a fundamental restructure of the New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme (NZ ETS) will be needed. 

The PCE usefully reinforces three important points: targets and policies should reflect differences across greenhouse gases (GHGs), fossil carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions need to reach zero during this century, and management of New Zealand’s land sector would be enhanced by a landscape approach that integrates climate change and other considerations.

Zero Carbon Bill Submission

by Catherine Leining and Suzi Kerr.
The New Zealand government has recently consulted on its proposal for a Zero Carbon Bill. This would:

• set a new and more ambitious 2050 greenhouse gas emission reduction target
• establish interim five-year “emissions budgets” consistent with meeting those targets
• require the government to issue plans for achieving its emissions budgets
• require preparation of a national climate change risk assessment and national adaptation plan
• set up a new independent Climate Change Commission to advise the government and monitor its progress.

Our full submission on the Zero Caron Bill is available here. In this blog we highlight five key opportunities to improve the government’s proposal.

Decoupling New Zealand’s economic growth from GHG emissions

By Catherine Leining, Policy Fellow at Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.

Global progress to avoid the worst impacts of climate change depends on our ability to separate economic growth and wellbeing from greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. They cannot continue to increase in lock step. One indicator of progress is our GHG intensity: tonnes of emissions per unit of GDP.

StatsNZ’s first report on New Zealand’s Environmental and Economic Accounts finds evidence this decoupling of our economic growth and emissions is occurring. Over 1990-2015, New Zealand’s economy grew by an average of 3.1% per year while GHG emissions increased 0.9% per year. This means that, over that 25 year period, the economy’s GHG intensity declined by an average of 2.2% per year. That shows progress, but it is not enough.

The NZ ETS: Better equipped for the journey – but still unsure of the path

by Catherine Leining, Policy Fellow at Motu Economic and Public Policy Research

Every tramper knows the value of good gear. A well-designed backpack that distributes the weight to the areas of greatest strength can transform the experience of a challenging bushwalk.  

The changes to the New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme (NZ ETS) announced by the government last month will usefully equip the system for the journey to net-zero domestic emissions. Like a good backpack, they offer a sturdy framework for distributing mitigation responsibilities and costs across the economy. However, we still do not know what route lies ahead, what pace we will set, what provisions will sustain our efforts, and who will carry the heaviest weight.

The government has not altered our path through 2020. What longer-term changes can we expect to see in the NZ ETS?

Forestry in the Emissions Trading Scheme

by Tom Carver, Motu Intern

The New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme (NZ ETS) is “the Government’s principal policy response to climate change”.[1] It has been operational since 2008; however, much of the information and data that is are necessary to evaluate its performance and model the future evolution of the ETS and its implications for meeting future targets haves not been publicly released by the government. 

Earlier this year Motu requested information on:

• Clarification for how forestry will be accounted for under New Zealand’s Paris INDC targets, and any associated modelling;
• Forecasts of afforestation, emissions and removals from ETS registered forests;
• Extra details on forestry that had not yet been made public:

1. Age and size profile for ETS registered forests;
2. Area weighted average age of deforestation for pre-1990 forests;
3. Region, age and species of land removed from the ETS;
4. Other technical details: The extent of ETS exemptions for tree weeds and owners with less than 50 hectares of pre-1990 forest, distinctions between data reporting in voluntary vs. mandatory returns, forest area involved in forest offsetting provisions (enabling landowners to avoid ETS deforestation liabilities if they establish a comparable forest elsewhere), and the proportion of NZUs in the ETS bank that are attached to future liabilities for post-1989 forest.

MPI officials withheld information on the first point on the grounds that negotiations for these rules are still being finalised after the Paris agreement last year and that these are therefore sensitive. The information they provided is available on the Motu website.